Aaron Judge just hit his 51st home run of what is sure to be his second MVP season…and it’s only late August; what we are witnessing is an amazing feat arguably unseen in the almost one-hundred and fifty years of the sport, and no, it isn’t because he is “getting help.”
Legends on Deck’s David Conde has already written about how Judge is on pace to crack 60 again, or perhaps even break his own record of 62, but I want to focus on a bigger number – 500. For a large portion of baseball history, 500 home runs has been seen as a milestone that assured you induction into the Hall of Fame, with only convicted or accused steroid users thus far being left out.
Judge’s shot at such glory always seemed impossible; after all, his rookie season came at the age of 25, which is not only older than most rookies, but of the twenty-eight players to have hit 500 HR, none of them did so with a career that fully started at 25. The closest examples would be Babe Ruth, who had his first “major” HR year (29) at the age of 24, but he had played a few seasons previously, and both Rafael Palmeiro and David Ortiz, who both had their first 20+ HR seasons at age 26 (though they each played full seasons before this). Even Judge’s teammate, Giancarlo Stanton, the current potential next in line to join the club, had his start in his early 20s.
But what makes Judge more likely to reach this top of the mountain when no other player who started so late, has? For starters, with a little over a month left to go in the season, it is not unreasonable to assume Judge finishes 2024 with at least seven more long balls, which would give him 315 for his career; he could finish with more, but let’s be conservative for a moment. With his two bombs on Sunday, Judge joined Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Alex Rodriguez as the only men in history to have at least three 50+ HR seasons; it is entirely reasonable to think he could do it two more times in the next three seasons. If he does, that’s an additional 100 home runs by the age of 35, leaving less than 100 left to go. Even if he doesn’t hit 50 even one more time, he can still be left with about 100 left to go if he only hits in the low 40s in each of the next two seasons.
With a man like Judge, that doesn’t seem like a very tall task, especially as he continues to improve. Sure, he could break down as he gets older, but that is why how he finishes this year and continues over the next two could make all the difference.
What makes all this even more insane is that he should be closer than he already is. Coming off his 52 HR rookie season, Judge hit 27 HR in both 2018 and 2019 due to a couple of freak injuries (a broken wrist on a hit by pitch, and a broken rib/pierced lung while diving to catch a ball); next came the abbreviated pandemic season, where he hit 9 HR in 28 games. Three years after that, Judge was on pace to repeat his run at the AL HR record when he ran into a wall while making a catch and sprained his toe on a concrete slab (stupid Dodger Stadium!), and while Judge came back later that season, he finished with 37 for the year.
Now, obviously injuries happen and a player’s career can only be judged on what happened, not what could have been, but…
Based on how the rest of Judge’s seasons have played out, I think it would be fair to add ten homers each to his two 27 HR years, twenty-five to his 9 HR year, and ten to his 37 HR year, to remain as conservative, yet realistic, as possible. Meaning it is quite reasonable to assume that Judge missed out on at least 55 additional home runs due to injuries, and should be finishing this year with only one season left to go until 400…but alas. Not bad for a man who was a twenty-five-year-old rookie.
Will Judge reach 500 HR and a sure-fire Hall of Fame berth? I hope so, but what these last couple of years have made clear, is that what was once improbable, may very well soon become inevitable.
