NASCAR Weekend Preview: Phoenix Could Shake Up the Championship Chase

Four races remain, and Kyle Larson continues to control the championship picture. He enters Phoenix with a 49-point advantage over Denny Hamlin, while Christopher Bell sits just two points behind Hamlin. Chase Briscoe trails Larson by 65 points, followed by Ryan Blaney at 85 back and Joey Logano at 92 behind. Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead-Miami will determine whether Larson maintains that advantage or someone mounts a late charge.

Briscoe arrives with consecutive victories at Las Vegas and Charlotte. His Charlotte win came by just 0.029 seconds over Bell, providing another reminder of how closely matched the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates can be. Briscoe has made significant progress, but continuing to gain ground requires scoring throughout the race, especially if Larson remains near the front.

Phoenix presents a different challenge from the intermediate tracks that have dominated the recent schedule. The one-mile oval rewards braking control, handling and strong corner exits. Its wide dogleg allows drivers to spread out aggressively on restarts, creating opportunities to gain positions—and chances for contact. Tire decisions and clean pit stops could be decisive if a late caution brings the field back together.

Blaney and Bell Bring Strong Phoenix Credentials

Among Larson’s challengers, Blaney has particular reason to welcome this weekend. He has won the last two Phoenix Cup races, including this spring’s event. In March, he recovered from pit-road setbacks and passed Ty Gibbs with 10 laps remaining before holding off Bell. That recovery showed how dangerous the No. 12 Ford can be here, even when the afternoon does not go smoothly.

Bell may have an equally convincing case as a favorite. He won the spring Phoenix races in 2024 and 2025, then led 176 of 312 laps this March before finishing second, just 0.399 seconds behind Blaney. For a driver 51 points behind Larson, repeating that speed could produce valuable stage points along with a chance at victory.

Larson, however, has his own Phoenix credentials. He won the 2021 championship race at the track and finished third this spring. Hamlin, a Phoenix winner in 2012 and 2019, finished fifth in March. Both have demonstrated the ability to run near the front, which could make it difficult for their rivals to create a major points swing.

Briscoe earned his first Cup victory at Phoenix in spring 2022, while Logano won the championship races there in 2022 and 2024. Their history adds depth to the list of potential winners. Gibbs also deserves attention after finishing fourth this spring, ahead of fellow Chase drivers Bubba Wallace in sixth, William Byron in seventh and Tyler Reddick in eighth.

Three Series, Three Days of Racing

The Craftsman Truck Series opens the weekend Friday night with the Zero Carbon Bioethanol 150 Powered by POET. The O’Reilly Auto Parts Series follows Saturday with the Timberland PRO 200, before the Cup Series takes center stage Sunday afternoon. All three events are Chase races, giving the weekend championship implications beyond the Cup standings.

Justin Allgaier is one driver to watch Saturday. He won the spring O’Reilly Series race at Phoenix, taking the lead late to secure his third victory at the track. That experience makes him a strong contender when the series returns under the lights.

For Sunday, Blaney and Bell stand out as particularly strong threats based on recent Phoenix performances. Briscoe brings momentum, Hamlin needs to reverse his growing deficit, and Larson has the opportunity to make everyone’s championship pursuit more difficult.

The challengers need to start finishing ahead of Larson while collecting points along the way. Phoenix gives them a place where several have succeeded before. Now they must turn that history into results.

Cup Series Chase Standings Entering Phoenix

After Charlotte — four races remaining. Negative numbers indicate points behind Larson.

Phoenix Weekend Schedule

All times Eastern.