As we approach the MLB trade deadline, rumors are swirling about the Detroit Tigers and their Ace, Tarik Skubal. As many have noted, Skubal has simply been the best pitcher in the American League in the first half of the 2024 season. He’s high on the leader board in nearly every major statistical category and arguably should have started the All Star Game over Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes. Which brings us to the Orioles.
The current buzz surrounding Tarik Skubal is he’s the hottest pitcher potentially available on the market. Both the Orioles and Dodgers have been linked to having serious interest. The big question for Detroit is whether or not it’s worth trading one of the best current pitchers in baseball and if so, what kind of return should they expect?
What Would It Take?
Many have written on this subject already, so I’ll attempt to add to it from a slightly different angle. I do not believe the Dodgers would have the players of interest that would make a Skubal deal worthwhile. However, the Orioles and their seemingly endless supply of top prospects, may have enough.
Before the season began, I wrote an analysis of the rebuilding efforts of both of the Tigers and Orioles. It was simple enough to conclude that the Orioles rebuild worked well and the Tigers, not as well. You can look as far as the success on the field in the past two seasons. Baltimore is currently the top team in the American League.
For the Orioles, it’s all about staying power. They have been back and forth with the Yankees all season. There are the Guardians in the Central and slew of other contenders that include the Astros, Twins, Red Sox, Mariners and Royals. The Rays have pulled back in at .500. Adding a top tier arm to the starting rotation would clearly be a major boost to Baltimore.
On the Tigers side, it’s a very difficult decision. They currently sit at 49-51 and six games back of the AL Wild Card. However, there’s a whole lot of teams in their way, which likely makes them sellers. Most Tigers fans would likely agree they don’t have postseason hopes for 2024. But, cashing in on their big chip (Tarik Skubal) runs a high risk that would need a yield a big reward.
Go Big or Go Home
From what I’ve already read on these trade rumors, the biggest name floating around is baseball’s top prospect, Jackson Holliday. Tigers aligned media are all saying similar things; any deal for Skubal must include Holliday. This would surely fit the Tigers needs in a number of ways. As the team looks to move on from Javier Baez, the shortstop position is a key spot to fill. Holliday has largely been preparing to be a second baseman, due to Gunnar Henderson being the Orioles shortstop. Holliday likely sees himself as a shortstop and a move to the Tigers would award him that future opportunity.
After his 2 HR day yesterday, here’s what Jackson Holliday is doing in the month of July:
14 games
.324 BA/1.191 OPS
3 HR/6 2B
13 BB/9 K
Healthy again and back to playing in the field.— The Verge- An Orioles MiLB Podcast (@TheVergePod) July 20, 2024
If such a trade is possible, there are some big questions for both teams. Are the Orioles willing to part with their top prospect to secure a big boost to their pitching staff? The answer there is likely, yes. When you consider they are serious World Series contenders, onboarding one of the top pitchers in baseball could be the piece they need to get there. Think, the Astros acquiring Justin Verlander in 2017.
On the flip side, are the Tigers willing to deal their proven Ace in hope to build their future? The answer is perhaps a little less clear. Holliday’s MLB debut was certainly anticlimactic, but he was likely called-up too early. Others have suggested there are other deals that could include Orioles prospects like Coby Mayo and Enrique Bradfield Jr. A deep system for their Orioles works to their benefit. The key for the Tigers is getting the biggest possible boost for the near future, knowing Skubal is going to be very hard to replace. The stakes are high for both teams heading into the trade deadline.
