In 1998, the Seattle Mariners had a disappointing season, finishing 76-85 and in 3rd place in the AL West; and on July 31st of that year, they traded their ace, former Cy Young Award winner Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros. The Big Unit was, at the time, 9-10 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 starts, but upon joining the Astros, proceeded to go 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA over 11 starts, helping Houston to finish 102-60, first place in the NL Central, 12.5 games ahead of the second-place Cubs.
Johnson was, at the time, one of, if not the best pitcher in the Majors despite having a less-than-stellar year when traded, and this year, we may be seeing another top-of-the-league pitcher being traded in Tarik Skubal. Now, the Tigers are surging at the time of publishing, but with over 2 weeks remaining until the Trade Deadline, anything can happen; and so, let’s see what history can teach us about a potential Skubal return using Johnson as a relevant comp.
Johnson was at the time a true rental; someone who was a free agent at the end of the season with no assurance of re-signing with any team he was traded to, and as mentioned previously, was having a down year overall. Despite that, trading for an ace should still command value, and he did so via the acquisition of three players: Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama.
All three of those men ended up becoming decent-to-good major leaguers, with Garcia and Guillen being the best of the lot, but what is most interesting about the haul is that none of those men could be considered “premier top prospects.” In 1998, Baseball America ranked Garcia and Guillen #61 and #27 across all of baseball, and Baseball Prospectus believed them to be #30 (Garcia) and an honorable mention (Guillen); Halama was unranked. In terms of Houston’s list, Baseball America had Garcia, Guillen, and Halama as the Astros’ #6, #7 and #8 prospects, respectively.
That is a high, but not overly painful cost; to give up three top 10 prospects without giving up any of your top 5? Entirely doable, which leads us to the Skubal question.
As it stands right now, Tarik Skubal is 6-5 with a 2.83 ERA in 14 starts, for a team that is 3.5 games out of the wildcard; his stats are better than Johnson’s for sure, but the big caveat here is that Skubal is coming off of not only an elbow injury, but an in-season elbow surgery on his pitching elbow. Now, he is so far showing that he is back and healthy, but elbows are a tricky thing, and his could blow at any time, especially having already had some additional stress this season.
I’ll leave aside any argument over who should be considered the better pitcher between prime Randy Johnson and prime Tarik Skubal, but all things being equal, if Johnson fetched the Astros’ #6, #7, and #8 prospects (two top 100 prospects), what does that mean for Skubal? Should he necessarily cost members of a team’s top 5? Should they have to be in the top 100? I think, given the circumstances, a team’s top 3 prospects at least should logically be safe in any Skubal deal, even if more has to be added on the back end; then again, one never knows what various GMs value, or how the market will ultimately shake out.
